By Takura Zhangazha*
The European Union has decided to put a conditionality on the long
standing issue of sanctions on Zimbabwe and Zimbabwean individuals. In a statement released on Monday, July 23, 2010, EU foreign ministers
stated that they would suspend sanctions on Zimbabwe only after the
country has held a ‘credible referendum’ on a new constitution. The same
statement also sought to make it clear that the sanctions being
referred to are not those that relate directly to President Mugabe or
any one who is linked to political violence. The latter point is one
that will obviously rile members of President Mugabe’s party and may
also cause SADC to warn against selective application of the sanctions
when the country has an ‘inclusive’ government and a political agreement
that calls for the lifting of all sanctions on Zimbabwe.
It is however
the prerogative of the EU to decide its foreign policy and the onus of
changing its ‘cold’ approach to Zimbabwe resides more in the ability of
Zimbabwean leaders to negotiate for the reneging of these sanctions.
That the Zimbabwean leaders have failed to find a common strategy on how to get the sanctions
lifted is no longer in any doubt especially after this new conditionality of a
‘credible referendum’ that has been announced by the EU foreign ministers.
It would however be necessary to examine what this new EU position
on sanctions means for Zimbabwe and our politics. The first effect of
this new conditionality will be that of making the constitutional
reform process as the ‘only’ mechanism through which free and fair
elections can be held. This in itself is a disputed point but what the
EU has essentially placed on the table is that either the inclusive
government comes up with reforms that lead to a ‘credible referendum’
and with it a ‘credible’ referendum result or the sanctions will be
extended. Whether this will mean a new law on referendums in Zimbabwe
that is approved by the EU or alternatively, a constitutional campaign
that will lead to a ‘yes’ vote to the COPAC draft is really up to the
three principals in the inclusive government. What is however self evident is that the
EU has literally placed the ball in the court of the three parties in
the inclusive government, and either way, the same parties will have to
dance to the tune of EU should they want sanctions suspended or lifted
in the short term.
It is also important to observe that because of the rather condescending
announcement by the EU foreign ministers, the three parties in the
inclusive governemtn are going to react differently on the matter.
Zanu Pf is going to be slighted and will raise its internal party stakes
around the exact purpose of the whole COPAC process. The same party
will also be more shrill in seeking to put the blame for sanctions
firmly at the MDCs doorsteps after this particular development. There
will however also be internal divisions as to whether to call the EU’s
bluff and go ahead with the referendum or put a stop to the constitution
drafting process all-together citing controversial arguments such as
‘interference with sovereignty’ or the oft-used refrain of ‘regime change agenda of the West’
The MDCs on the other hand, will view this as a ‘victory’ in the sense
that it makes their case for a new constitution via a referendum
internationally recognized and therefore seemingly irreversible
domestically. These parties will also seek to raise the matter with SADC
in order for the issue to have resonance with Zimbabwe’s neighbours and
in terms of the much vaunted electoral road-map. They will however face
the challenge of being accused by Zanu Pf and some ruling parties in the region of not having done enough thus far to get the sanctions
lifted or to have actively played a part in their retention. This more so
where Prime Minister Tsvangirai is reported to have stated that
sanctions must be suspended, not lifted, while in Australia this week. In
true fashion, the MDCs will issue ambiguous statements on the same
matter in the confidence that their actual position on sanctions is of
limited interest to their supporters or their electoral base.
To all intents and purposes, the announcement by the EU foreign
ministers on the conditionality of a ‘credible’ constitutional
referendum as the basis of a review of sanctions, is a serious
development in Zimbabwe’s politics. Whether the EU ministers made this
decision on the advice of any other players is of limited consequence
because it remains their right to determine their foreign policy. This
is also true of Zimbabwe’s political leaders who also remain with the
sovereign right to respond to the EU’s announcement hopefully in the
best interests of Zimbabwe and not of themselves. Now that the constitutional referendum has been internationalized, the political
stakes are higher, and it is my fervent hope that our own common
sense will prevail.
*Takura Zhangazha writes here in his personal capacity (takura-zhangazha.blogspot.com)
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